After a period of decline in nonprofit donations following the record highs of 2020 and 2021, the philanthropic sector is showing signs of a rebound. According to “The Philanthropy Outlook 2024 and 2025” report from the Lilly Family School of Philanthropy at Indiana University, charitable giving is projected to grow by 4.2% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025. This positive shift reverses the 3.4% decline reported by Giving USA for 2022 and surpasses the past decade’s average annual growth rate of 1.9%.
Several economic and social factors, including the pandemic, social justice movements, stock market volatility, and inflation, have influenced charitable giving in recent years. Researchers analyzed 19 unique variables to forecast the next two years of philanthropy but caution that the sector remains subject to economic fluctuations and unforeseen events.
“It is important to acknowledge that these findings do not necessarily indicate a return to business as usual,” the report states. “Organizations of different sizes and categories may face unique opportunities and challenges.”
Individual Giving: A Steady Increase Expected
Household donations are predicted to rise by 2.6% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025. This growth correlates with expected increases in personal income and net worth, which historically boost charitable contributions. Additionally, stock market gains are likely to lead to more million-dollar donations.
Consumer sentiment, a key indicator of financial and economic confidence, will also play a crucial role in driving donations. As inflation stabilizes, individuals may feel more comfortable allocating funds to charitable causes.
Despite this growth, individual giving will account for a slightly smaller share of total donations—63.1% in 2024 and 62.8% in 2025—compared to 64% in 2022.
Foundation Giving: A Strong Surge Ahead
Donations from private, community, and operating foundations are expected to rise significantly, increasing by 10.3% in 2024 and another 5.3% in 2025. This above-average growth is primarily influenced by stock market and GDP trends.
Since foundations base their giving on asset growth, strong performance in the S&P 500 directly impacts their ability to donate. The projected increase in foundation giving aligns with anticipated market gains from the previous year.
Foundations will contribute 22.6% of total giving in 2024, with a slight increase in 2025—exceeding Giving USA’s 21% share from 2022.
Estate Giving: A Gradual but Positive Trend
Legacy gifts, both cash and non-cash, are projected to grow by 2.7% in 2024 and 5.5% in 2025. The latter surpasses historical trends and may signal the early stages of a significant wealth transfer.
The increase in estate giving stems primarily from rising net worth, driven by home value appreciation and stock market growth. However, estate donations can fluctuate considerably due to large, one-time bequests from a few high-net-worth individuals.
In 2024, estate giving will make up about 8.4% of total contributions, with a slight increase in 2025. While slightly below the 9% share recorded in 2022, this category remains a stable source of philanthropic support.
Corporate Giving: Modest Growth with Economic Influence
Corporate donations, including those from corporate foundations, are forecasted to rise by 1.9% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. This growth is attributed to GDP expansion and stock market performance, although it remains below the long-term average for corporate philanthropy.
Corporate giving is expected to maintain a 5.8% share of total donations in both 2024 and 2025, in line with Giving USA’s 2022 figures. However, economic and political shifts could impact this outlook.
“Many economists agree that the U.S. is on track for a ‘soft landing,’ meaning inflation rates will decline without triggering a recession,” the report notes. “Still, unexpected economic shifts, lower-than-expected GDP, and policy changes in 2025 could alter current projections.”
Conclusion: A Promising Future for Philanthropy
As the nonprofit sector emerges from recent economic uncertainty, the outlook for philanthropy appears optimistic. Individual, foundation, and estate giving are all expected to grow, while corporate giving will see steady, if modest, gains. Despite potential economic and political shifts, charitable contributions are set to rebound, offering renewed support for nonprofits in the coming years.
For further insights into nonprofit trends, download NonProfit PRO’s free resource, “40 Nonprofit Trends for 2024.”
